The failure to implement a robust DDR program creates a dangerous security vacuum. When former combatants remain armed and lack viable livelihoods, they stay ready for violence. They do not transition into civilian life. Instead, they remain organized units capable of mobilizing for renewed conflict. This situation turns former soldiers into permanent spoilers of the peace process.
Without economic reintegration, many fighters face poverty and social exclusion. Desperation often leads back to militia activity. If the TPLF or other local factions cannot provide jobs or social stability, the risk of a return to hostilities grows. The Pretoria Agreement relies heavily on the assumption that soldiers will put down their guns and pick up tools. When that transition stalls, the foundation of the peace remains fragile. Weapons stay hidden, and local tensions simmer.
Furthermore, the absence of a verified disarmament process prevents the federal government from regaining full authority over the Tigray region. This lack of control fuels distrust between Addis Ababa and Mekelle. Soldiers without a clear exit strategy often revert to their old command structures. This creates a cycle of mistrust that makes any long-term political settlement much harder to achieve. Stability requires more than just a signature; it requires a dismantled war machine.
