At the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September 2024, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told delegates that the Strait of Hormuz would not be used to ‘impose insecurity on us’. The line was calibrated for a diplomatic audience. It framed the waterway as a defensive instrument, a chokepoint that Iran can close if external pressure becomes unbearable. The Strait, however, is not only a military map feature. It is a humanitarian artery. Roughly one-fifth of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through it daily. Any serious disruption would be felt first in pharmacies, food markets, and household budgets from Bandar Abbas to Nairobi.
From National Sovereignty to Strategic Narrative
The President’s claim that the Strait is being used to ‘impose insecurity’ on Iran should be read as a political narrative, not a neutral description of threat. Iran has faced real external pressures: sanctions, cyberattacks, the 2020 killing of General Qasem Soleimani, and repeated seizures of tankers. Yet the Strait has never been closed in modern history, not even during the 1984–1988 Tanker War, when Iraq and Iran attacked hundreds of merchant vessels. Operation Earnest Will (1987–1988) and Operation Praying Mantis (1988) showed that the United States would keep the waterway open. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) has since developed asymmetric tactics: fast attack craft, mines, anti-ship missiles, and drones. These are real capabilities. But the rhetoric of existential siege also serves domestic legitimacy, nuclear negotiations, and demands for sanctions relief. The threat is partly a diplomatic instrument.
What the Speech Omits: Human Security in the Gulf
Human security, a concept formalized by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1994, covers economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, and political safety. The security-centric framing of the Strait ignores all but the last. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states import 80–90 per cent of their food. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Kuwait depend on desalination plants and container ships that must transit Hormuz. A single insurance warning from Lloyd’s of London can raise war-risk premiums overnight. Shipping companies reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days. Perishable goods spoil. Medicine shipments, including insulin and vaccines that require cold chains, are delayed. The 30 million migrant workers in the GCC—many from South Asia and East Africa—would lose wages, remittances, and sometimes legal status if construction and retail sectors contract.
Food, Medicine, and the Chokepoint Economy
The Strait of Hormuz is not only an oil corridor. It carries bulk carriers loaded with wheat (Triticum aestivum), rice (Oryza sativa), maize (Zea mays), and barley. The UAE alone imports about 90 per cent of its food, much of it through Hormuz. Iran, despite its agricultural sector, imports wheat, corn, soybeans, and essential medicines. Existing sanctions already complicate payments and shipping. A maritime crisis would worsen them. War-risk insurance premiums could triple. Ports in Jebel Ali, Doha, and Kuwait City would face backlogs. Food inflation would hit low-income households first. In 2019, after attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, Brent crude prices jumped 14 per cent in a single day. The Strait did not close, but markets moved as if it might.
Oil Prices and Purchasing Power
Oil price shocks travel faster than naval fleets. Higher Brent crude raises transport costs, fertilizer prices, and electricity bills. Developing nations that import both fuel and food are hit twice. Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka have limited fiscal space for subsidies. When fuel prices rise, governments cut subsidies or let currencies depreciate. Households then reduce protein intake, skip doctor visits, and pull children out of school. The International Energy Agency (IEA) can release strategic petroleum reserves, but that is a short-term buffer. It does not rebuild supply chains or calm freight markets. For a nurse in Karachi or a teacher in Cairo, the Strait of Hormuz is not a geopolitical abstraction. It is the price of cooking oil and the availability of paracetamol.
Warfare Knows No Borders: Inflation, Displacement, Resource Scarcity
Maritime conflict does not stay at sea. It radiates through insurance markets, freight rates, commodity futures, and currency exchange. The 1980s Tanker War did not close the Strait, but it raised insurance costs and drew the US Navy into the Gulf. A new crisis would add displacement to inflation. Yemen, Syria, and Afghanistan already host millions of refugees. A wider Gulf conflict could push Iranians, Iraqis, and Gulf expatriates across borders. Resource scarcity would follow. Desalination plants need energy. Hospitals need diesel for generators. Water tankers need fuel. In a hot, arid region, a power outage is a public health emergency. Cholera and heatstroke spread quickly. The phrase ‘warfare knows no borders’ is usually applied to terrorism or cyberattacks. It applies equally to inflation and disease.
Naval Strength vs. Humanitarian Stability
The US Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain. The IRGCN operates from Bandar Abbas and the islands of Abu Musa and Greater Tunb. Coalition task forces patrol the Gulf of Oman. Deterrence matters. But warships do not feed people. Maritime security should include safe passage for food and medicine vessels, humanitarian corridors, and early-warning systems shared by all littoral states. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) convention provide legal tools. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) defines transit passage rights. These instruments are not naive. They are practical. A naval escort for a wheat ship is as strategic as a naval escort for an oil tanker.
Toward a De-escalation Framework
De-escalation is possible without a grand bargain. Iran and the United States could revive an Incident at Sea agreement (INCSEA), similar to the 1972 US–Soviet model. A direct hotline between the IRGCN and the US Fifth Fleet would reduce miscalculation. Neutral inspection regimes for humanitarian cargo could be expanded. Sanctions waivers for food, medicine, and agricultural inputs already exist on paper but need reliable banking channels. Track II dialogues between GCC states and Iran have quietly continued for years. The Strait could be treated as a shared lifeline rather than a weapon. That would require both sides to accept that security is not zero-sum. A stable Hormuz benefits Iranian fishermen, Emirati traders, Omani truckers, and Pakistani consumers.
The Human Ledger of the Strait
President Pezeshkian’s speech will be remembered for its defiant tone. The harder ledger is human. A mother in Dubai checking the price of imported baby formula. A diabetic in Tehran waiting for a shipment of metformin. A migrant construction worker in Doha whose remittance has shrunk. A farmer in Sindh who cannot afford diesel for irrigation. These people do not choose between Iran and the United States. They live with the consequences of rhetoric. The Strait of Hormuz has been a crossing point for trade, conquest, and pilgrimage for centuries. Its closure would be a political act. Its disruption would be a humanitarian event. The difference is not academic. It is measured in meals, medicines, and lives.
