To beat coking coal, green hydrogen needs a massive drop in production costs. Right now, electricity accounts for most of the expense. We need better electrolyzers. Scaling up manufacturing for PEM and alkaline systems will drive down unit costs, much like solar panels did a decade ago. Higher efficiency in these cells means we get more hydrogen for every kilowatt used. That matters.
Renewable energy supply must also change. We cannot rely on the grid alone; we need dedicated wind and solar farms built right next to production sites. This reduces transmission losses and avoids high grid fees. Large-scale storage, like salt caverns, will become necessary to manage the intermittent nature of wind and sun. Without reliable storage, hydrogen production stays small and expensive.
Infrastructure is the final hurdle. We need pipelines designed for hydrogen rather than natural gas to prevent leakage and embrittlement. Shipping liquid hydrogen also requires cryogenic advancements to make long-distance trade viable. Once these pieces—cheap electrolyzers, dedicated renewables, and massive storage—click together, the cost curve will finally cross the line of coal profitability. Until then, it remains a premium product.
