The Thermodynamics of Transition
Current climate policy focuses almost exclusively on the source of electrons. We talk about gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity, wind turbine blades, and the expansion of lithium-ion battery arrays. This approach assumes that if we swap a coal plant for a solar farm, the climate problem solves itself. It ignores a brutal reality of industrial physics and global economics: decarbonization is an incredibly energy-intensive process. To build the massive amounts of steel, cement, and silicon required for the transition, we need more electricity, not just different electricity. If that electricity is expensive, the transition stalls.
The math is unforgiving. Building a wind turbine requires massive amounts of energy to mine ore, smelt steel, and cast concrete. Manufacturing a single electric vehicle (EV) battery requires intensive chemical processing and high-heat manufacturing. If the cost of electricity rises during this build-out, the
