Security and Protection Risks
Once the MINURSO (United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara) ends, Sahrawi refugees could face increased security vulnerabilities. MINURSO has played a role in monitoring ceasefire agreements and providing a buffer against conflict escalation. Without this peacekeeping presence, there's a greater risk of violence or clashes, potentially causing forced displacement or harm to civilians in Sahrawi refugee camps.
Access to Basic Services
MINURSO’s presence also contributes indirectly to humanitarian aid delivery by stabilizing the area and enabling organizations to operate safely. After the mission ends, humanitarian agencies might struggle with access restrictions or face heightened insecurity. This could disrupt the supply of food, healthcare, water, and education, worsening already difficult living conditions in camps primarily located in Algeria.
Political and Social Implications
The cessation of MINURSO might increase political tensions between Morocco and the Polisario Front, impacting the political status of Sahrawi refugees. Reduced international oversight may limit opportunities for political dialogue or refugee repatriation efforts, prolonging displacement and uncertainty. Refugees could remain in limbo, with limited rights and a fragile social environment.
Long-Term Humanitarian Concerns
In the absence of MINURSO, the international community’s attention on the Western Sahara conflict might decline. This shift could translate into reduced funding and support for refugee assistance programs. Over time, this would exacerbate poverty and erode the resilience of Sahrawi refugee communities, making recovery even harder if future negotiations or peace processes fail to materialize.
