Enforcing the Pretoria Agreement requires a mix of financial leverage and political isolation. Since the African Union (AU) led the mediation, the first step lies in their monitoring capacity. If either side breaks the truce, the AU can trigger a suspension of membership or withhold technical support for the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) programs.
Financial pressure offers more teeth. The World Bank and the IMF could pause upcoming development loans if they detect systematic violations. This hits the federal government's budget directly. Simultaneously, Western nations might re-examine the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status, which affects Ethiopian textile exports to Europe.
On the ground, the UN Security Council holds the ultimate hammer. While veto powers often stall action, the threat of a Chapter VII resolution can change the calculus. This would authorize sanctions or even a peacekeeping mandate.
Diplomatically, regional neighbors like Sudan and Kenya hold sway. If these states restrict movement or close borders to specific actors, they create immediate logistical hurdles for non-compliant factions. Success depends on moving from mere words to tangible economic and logistical costs. Without these consequences, the agreement remains just paper.
