Standard carbon offsetting often relies on linear models. These assume that one ton of CO2 removed always equals one ton of CO2 emitted. This logic fails when facing climate tipping points, such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or thawing permafrost. These events are non-linear; once triggered, they create feedback loops that humanity cannot stop. A small amount of additional aviation fuel can push the system over a threshold, causing damage far greater than the initial emission suggests.
To fix this, the mathematical framework must move toward a risk-adjusted pricing model. Instead of simple addition, we should use stochastic calculus to weigh emissions against the probability of triggering a tipping point. This means assigning a much higher
